Nigeria Private Sector Growth Accelerates to Four-Month High

September 1, 2025 Haruna Magaji ECONOMY
Nigeria private sector growth

LAGOS, Nigeria – Nigeria’s private sector expansion reached its strongest pace since April 2025, with the Stanbic IBTC Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbing to 54.2 in August from 54.0 in July. The ninth consecutive month above the 50.0 growth threshold demonstrates sustained momentum as easing inflation pressures boost business confidence across Lagos and other major commercial hubs.

The PMI surge reflects sharper increases in output and new orders, with growth rates hitting four-month and 19-month highs respectively. Companies reported stronger customer demand and greater client willingness to commit to new projects, driving expansion across three of four sectors monitored, with manufacturing remaining the sole laggard. Business activity rose to 56.8 points while new orders jumped to 58.3 points, signaling robust underlying demand conditions.

Nigeria’s economic landscape shows encouraging signs of stabilization, with headline inflation declining to 32.15% in August 2024 from 33.40% in July, marking the first significant retreat after months of elevated price pressures. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintained its aggressive monetary stance, raising the policy rate to 27.25% despite the inflation decline, underscoring commitment to price stability.

Input costs showed the weakest pace of increase since March 2023, while output prices moderated for the fourth consecutive month, registering the slowest increase since April 2020. This disinflation trend prompted Stanbic IBTC to project headline inflation could fall further to between 21.45% and 21.63% year-on-year in August, with sharper moderation to 17.19%-17.9% anticipated by November.

Business confidence has surged to its highest level in over a decade, reflecting optimism about expansion plans and improved market conditions despite ongoing structural challenges. The services sector continues dominating economic activity, contributing 57.5% to Q1 2025 GDP growth of 3.13%, while telecommunications posted robust 7.40% expansion.

Nigeria’s rebased GDP figures reveal significant economic restructuring, with the services sector’s enhanced prominence reflecting diversification away from oil dependence. The industrial sector gained traction, rising 3.42% versus 2.35% in Q1 2024, bolstered by manufacturing recovery and infrastructure investments including the Dangote Refinery’s operations.

Despite positive momentum, analysts warn that persistent inflation remains a significant concern that could hinder economic growth if not adequately addressed. The exchange rate continues facing volatility pressures, though CBN interventions totaling $4.72 billion helped stabilize the naira around N1,500/$ from earlier peaks above N1,600/$.

Social media sentiment analysis by the CBN reveals that public perceptions significantly influence inflation expectations, with Twitter discussions showing comparatively positive attitudes toward economic developments despite ongoing challenges. Employment growth continued for the third consecutive month, though job creation remained modest as companies balanced expansion with cost management amid elevated input prices.

Financial markets reflect growing optimism, with analysts projecting potential CBN rate cuts of 50-150 basis points in H2 2025 as inflation moderates and currency stability improves. The manufacturing sector, while lagging overall PMI performance, shows signs of stabilization with food, beverage, tobacco, chemical, pharmaceutical, and cement industries driving modest 1.69% growth in Q1 2025.

About Haruna Magaji 2484 Articles
Haruna Magaji is a journalist, foreign policy expert and closet musician. He is a graduate of ABU Zaria and a member of the Nigerian union of journalists. JSA, as he is fondly called, resides in Suleja, Abuja. email him at - harunamagaji@financialwatchngr.com
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